Hindsight bias: characteristics of this cognitive bias

This cognitive bias affects the ability to analyze the contents of our memory.

Let bygones be bygones. There is one irrefutable fact: we cannot change our decisions or our actions in the past. And what do we usually do about it? Modify our perception of what happened and remember our own decisions as better than they really were.

This psychological effect known as bias or hindsight bias manifests itself when we look back in time and effectively believe that the events that occurred were more predictable than they actually were when a particular decision was made.

What is a cognitive bias?

A cognitive bias is a deviation in ordinary cognitive processing that leads an individual to distorting and misinterpreting the available information..

These types of irrational judgments, as with hindsight bias, arise as an evolutionary necessity from which our brains are able to make instantaneous judgments without the mediation of a more elaborate and, therefore, slower system of interpretation. Although they can lead us to make serious errors of interpretation, in certain contexts and situations they help us to make more accurate and effective decisions.

The concept of cognitive bias was introduced in 1972 by psychologists and researchers Daniel Kahneman and Tversky in 1972, following their experience in researching patients who were unable to reason intuitively with large numbers. Both argued that most important human decisions are based on a limited number of heuristic principles - mental tricks we use to simplify reality and solve problems - and not on a formal analysis of the facts. This theory was in direct contradiction to the rational model of decision making that prevailed at the time.

Hindsight bias: what is it and how does it influence us?

It is common for the hindsight bias to act whenever an economic or social crisis occurs. For example, after the global financial crisis of 2008, which was triggered by the collapse of the housing bubble and the subprime mortgage fraud in the USA, we saw how many of the economists who failed to predict its devastating effects claimed a posteriori that they were predictable and that they knew that what eventually happened would happen.

This bias also has a lot to do with the capacity we humans have to remember certain events. Our memory system does not work like a computerOur memory system does not work like a computer: memories fade over time and we reconstruct part of them by accumulating new experiences. The psychologist Elizabeth Loftus has been researching so-called "false memories" for years, postulating the theory that the way someone is asked to remember something influences their subsequent description of the memory itself.

These processing errors that bias our memoryThese processing errors that bias our memory, such as the hindsight bias, which leads us to modify our recollection of our beliefs prior to the occurrence of a given event in favor of the final conclusion, determine our view of ourselves and our surroundings. Historians, by biasing the outcome or development of a historical battle, or physicians, by biased recall of the negative effects of a clinical trial, are two examples of professions affected by this bias.

What does the research say about it?

Although a bias such as hindsight bias seems, a priori, an easily explainable and identifiable error, the vast majority of studies carried out conclude that it is very difficult to make judgments about something that has occurred by completely abstracting from the outcome, so that it is also difficult to deal with a hindsight bias.It is therefore also difficult to try to counteract its effect. Numerous studies have confirmed this bias, and in recent years there have been attempts to determine whether judges succumb to it to a greater or lesser extent than, for example, jurors.

In this regard, a study was conducted in 2001 with 167 judges of the U.S. Federal Courts. and concluded that judges were affected by hindsight bias to the same extent as other citizens. Another empirical study by researchers W.K. Viscusi and R. Hastie in 2002 also concluded that the same effects of hindsight bias influenced the judge's judgment, but to a lesser extent.

According to the study, although juries were correct in incorporating moral and social assessments into their verdict that allowed them to characterize a harmful act or behavior as malicious (thus punishing the defendant and preventing similar behavior in the future), errors and biases abounded, errors and prejudices abounded, turning conviction verdicts into an unpredictable lottery.. In contrast, professional judges erred to a lesser extent, a fact that calls into question the adequacy of juries, even though they are in their way more democratic.

How to combat this and other biases

There is no magic formula that guarantees that we will avoid irrational judgments and biases such as hindsight, but we can take into account certain keys to minimize their effects. but we can take into account certain keys to minimize their effects.. The first thing to start with is to accept and accept an uncomfortable truth: that we are not smarter than anyone else and that we are all, without exception, susceptible to their effects, regardless of how well educated we are or how rational we think we are.

Biases, as the evolutionary mechanisms that they are, are there and they are there for a reasonThey are there for a reason: to speed up decision-making and response to stimuli, problems or situations that, otherwise, we would not be able to face due to the inability of our cognitive system to process all the available information in the shortest possible time.

Once we have accepted our own vulnerability to the effects of the irrational, the next step is to know how to deal with the information we receive from our context and from other people. It is important to weigh the data and demand evidence in the face of statements that generate suspicion. Intuition without the support of reason does not lead to good results. We must contrast all opinions, our own and those of others, with facts and objective data. And be aware that making decisions based on a self-assessment of our capabilities can be misleading.

Finally, beware of always wanting to be right. Listening carefully and trying to understand the real meaning of the information provided by our interlocutor may that our interlocutor gives us can be the best remedy against self-deception. Closing our eyes and ears to the evidence so as not to see our established beliefs endangered is the prelude to one of the greatest evils of our society: fanaticism. And to paraphrase the American psychologist Gordon Allport: "People who are aware of or ashamed of their biases are also those who are on the way to suppressing them".

Other types of biases

There are many cognitive biases that lead us to make mistakes and irrational judgments, but we can't focus only on the most common ones.But we cannot focus only on the hindsight bias. There are many others that we must take into account. Among the best known are the following:

1. carryover bias.

It consists of believing or doing something that many people do. That is, the probability of occurrence of a behavior would increase as a function of the number of individuals who support it.. This bias is partly responsible for how we perpetuate many of the myths and false beliefs (such as thinking that we only use 10% of our brain or believing that homeopathy works) so deeply rooted in our society today.

2. Anchoring bias

This is the tendency to "anchor" and use the first piece of information and use the first piece of information that comes to us to make judgments or decisions..

The consequences of this bias are often used very effectively by all types of salespeople and salespeople. A very obvious example can be found in car dealerships. The salesperson shows us a vehicle and gives us a specific price (for example, €5,000). That first information, in this case a figure, will make us keep in mind the figure that the seller has offered us during the whole purchase process. Thus, he is the one who has the advantage of being able to negotiate on his own terms.

3. Fundamental attribution error bias

This is the tendency to attribute observable behavior exclusively to internal traits of an individual (such as personality or intelligence). In this way, we simplify reality by discarding a priori any possible relationship between situational factors factors -more changeable and less predictable- and the individual, which could serve as an explanation of his behavior.

4. Confirmation bias

It is produced by favoring, interpreting and remembering information that confirms our own expectations and previous beliefs, thus annulling any other type of alternative explanation. We interpret reality selectively (as occurs with the hindsight bias), ignoring facts and situations that do not support our preconceived ideas.

This error of reasoning has a very negative influence, for example, in political and organizational areas, where it is common to have to consider multiple options in order to make an accurate decision.where it is common to have to consider multiple options in order to make an accurate decision.

5. Availability bias

This is the tendency to estimate the probability of an event based on the availability or frequency with which that event appears in our mind through experience. through experience. For example, if in the media we are presented in the news every day and continuously news of house robberies in summer, our tendency will be to think that such events occur constantly and more often than they actually do, since they will be more present in our memory than other events that are objectively more frequent.

Bibliographical references:

• Bunge, M. and Ardila, R. (2002). Philosophy of psychology. Mexico: Siglo XXI.
• Myers, David G. (2005). Psicología. Mexico: Médica Panamericana.