Illusory correlation: what this bias is, and how it leads to errors

This psychological phenomenon leads us to make mistakes frequently, and gives rise to biases.

Do you know the phenomenon of illusory correlation? It is a very particular response tendency, and at the same time, an error that we make in our information processing, which leads us to establish relationships between two variables that either do not have such a strong relationship, or have no relationship at all.

This cognitive bias would explain, to a large extent, the origin of stereotypes. But in what way? In this article we tell you what illusory correlation consists of, how it works, why it appears, what relationship it has with stereotypes and, in addition, we introduce a concept closely related to it and which may be of interest to you: mental heuristics.

Illusory correlation: a cognitive bias

We all have cognitive biases, a type of psychological effect. Cognitive biases are response tendencies systematically maintained in any situation; their function is that of adjustment and adaptation, although they are characterized by leading us into errors (although not always), as they deviates us from "normal", rational or logical mental processing, i.e., such biases create distortions in our thinking..

That is, such biases create distortions or inaccurate judgments, and can also cause us to interpret reality illogically. One of these biases is the so-called "illusory correlation", studied mainly by social psychology (in fact, we can frame it within this field of study).

What does it consist of?

Originally, the term illusory correlation was coined by Chapman and Chapman (1967). As for its definition, is the tendency to rely only on confirmatory cases of our ideas or hypotheses, while ignoring non-confirmatory cases.while ignoring non-confirmatory cases.

Through illusory correlation, we look for (and even "create") associations or correlations between different variables that confirm our beliefs, and we end up perceiving the relationship between two or more variables as stronger than it really is. Sometimes, even, such a relationship does not really exist.

This cognitive bias has a social application in stereotypes, which are exaggerated and are exaggerated perceptions based on a few details that we have of some people who share certain characteristics.. In a way, stereotypes are a mechanism of mental economy, allowing us to "simplify reality" and economize cognitive resources, which logically leads to errors.

Thus, in this sense, by means of illusory correlation we overestimate infrequent behaviors in minority groups (e.g., thinking that all gypsies steal because only one of them has stolen from us). (e.g., thinking that all gypsies steal because only one of them has stolen from us). Normally, we apply the illusory correlation (often unconsciously) to negative behaviors. Later on we will delve a little deeper into the relationship between stereotypes and illusory correlation.

Mental heuristics

To understand the concept of illusory correlation, we should first get to know the concept of mental heuristics. Mental heuristics can be considered "mental shortcuts" of our thinking..

Generically, we could say that they consist of mental rules that we use, unconsciously and automatically, to transform a complex problem into a simpler one. Heuristics help us simplify things, respond faster and find efficient solutions.

Relation to the availability heuristic

In 1973, Tversky and Kahneman talked about illusory correlation as one of the possible mistakes we can make when applying a particular heuristic, called the availability heuristic.

The availability heuristic, on the other hand, consists of a kind of "mental shortcut" that we use to evaluate something, and which makes us rely on the information that is most available to us mentally, which helps to optimize our mental effort/work, preventing us from spending unnecessary time in the process.

Thus, when we use the availability heuristic, we access the most recent or easily accessible mental material in our mind. (i.e., to material we have more "at hand"), and we rely on such material to make a judgment or create an opinion regarding an issue.

According to social psychologist and professor Scott Plous (1993), "the more accessible an event is, the more frequent and probable it will seem". In addition, Plous also specifies that the more vivid the information, the more convincing it will be, and the better we will remember it. On the other hand, the more evident something is to us, the more causal it will seem to us (i.e., the more likely we are to think that "it" causes a certain phenomenon).

How does illusory correlation work?

Thus, when we apply the availability heuristic, we can make different mistakes (cognitive biases). One of them is that of illusory correlation, which implies using only (or prioritizing) the information that is most available to us..

In this case, it is the correlation or association between different stimuli or variables (following the previously mentioned example "gypsies" and "criminals"), which is more available in our mind, which makes us remember this association much more intensely.

This results in the aforementioned overestimation of the frequency of occurrence of this association. Thus, we think that this association occurs much more frequently than it actually does.

Relationship with stereotypes

We have seen that there is a relationship between stereotypes and illusory correlation, but what exactly does this relationship consist of?

According to several studies in cognitive psychology, illusory correlation is actually one of the explanatory mechanisms involved in stereotyping. one of the explanatory mechanisms involved in the origin of stereotypes.. In other words, in a way, illusory correlation would be the origin of stereotypes.

How do stereotypes act through this mechanism (or, as a product of it)? According to Mullen and Johnson (1990) and current research, people overestimate the correlation between two variables that are usually distinctive and different in others (e.g. being gypsy, lower class, homosexual...); This causes us to develop negative stereotypes towards certain social groups (such as those mentioned above). (such as those mentioned above).

Why do we apply illusory correlation?

As we have seen, on the one hand, the function of heuristics is to simplify our task when solving a problem or analyzing a situation. However, sometimes errors are the result of these heuristics, as would be the case of illusory correlation.

But why do we make this error or cognitive bias? Cognitive biases often act unconsciously and automatically, or because we have a biased information processing. information processing biased (for even deeper reasons), or (for even deeper reasons), or because our mind wants to economize mental resources; this second case would explain the origin of stereotypes.

For people (or at least, for our mind), it is much easier (but not correct, nor fair, nor logical) to think that "all the people of "X" collective or social category are like this", than to think that "Pepe is like this, Juan is like that, Paula is this other way...".

Thus, it would be a mechanism of resource economization, although logically other factors are also involved: racism, social inheritance, false beliefs, the type of personality of each person, etc.

Bibliographical references:

• Ariely, D. (2008). Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decisions. New York, NY: HarperCollins.
• Mullen, B. y Johnson, C. (1990), Distinctiveness-based illusory correlations and stereotyping: A meta-analytic integration. British Journal of Social Psychology 29, 11-28.
• Plous, S. (1993). Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. McGraw-Hill, NY.
• Triglia, A. (s.f.). "Heurísticos": los atajos mentales del pensamiento humano. Psicología y Mente.
• Tversky, A. y Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207-232.