Affective prediction: a very useful mental skill

Curiously, we are not good at predicting how we will react emotionally to future situations.

Human beings have the capacity to feel an immense amount of emotions that overwhelm us and condition us when making any kind of decision. When these emotions occur in the past, they can be so intensely recorded that we can remember them no matter how much time passes. But what about future emotions?

Some studies have attempted to study our ability to determine future emotions, giving it the concept of affective prediction. the concept of affective prediction. In this article we will discuss this ability, as well as specific factors and possible applications.

What is affective prediction?

Affective prediction or affective forecasting is a term used in psychology to define the ability of people to make predictions about their future affect or emotional state. the capacity of people to make predictions about their future affect or emotional state and its consequences. and the consequences of these predictions.

The term was coined by psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert following their research on this ability. While early research focused only on the measurement of emotional predictions, later studies began to examine the accuracy and predictability of these forecasts.

A limited mental ability

The results revealed that people are tremendously clumsy when it comes to trying to predict our emotional states.. Because of the many cognitive biases we have, such as focus, empathy gap and impact bias, we are virtually unable to determine exactly how, when and with what intensity we will experience our emotions in the future.

The reason is that feelings experienced in the present interfere with and blind us to decisions in the future, at which point we may feel very differently than we think we will.

An example of this is when we ask people how they think they would feel if they won the lottery. People are likely to overestimate future positive feelings, ignoring a host of factors that may influence their emotional state other than the fact that they have won the lottery.

However, studies revealed that people were able to predict the affective valence of their future emotions. That is, we know whether a future action or event will be positive or not. Also We are also quite adept at identifying the emotions that we will haveWe are also quite adept at identifying the emotions we will have; for example, knowing that we will feel happy after a compliment.

However, these predictions are not always correct. That is, people are not right about their future emotions 100% of the time. In the same way, we are much less accurate when trying to predict the intensity and duration of our future emotions.

What aspects of emotion can we predict?

Affective prediction can be divided into four components or factors for which people have greater or lesser predictive ability. These factors are:

• Affective valence.
• The specific emotion experienced.
• The intensity of the emotions.
• The duration of the emotions.

Affective valence

In psychology we call affective valence the emotional value we give to a person, object or situation.. In the specific case of affective prediction, it manifests itself in the ability to know whether a person or event will bring us positive or negative emotions. Whichever they are.

Studies reveal that people are very skilled at predicting this factor, which means that we are quite clear about which things generate positive emotions and we value them as such, and which other things provoke negative emotions and produce feelings of aversion.

2. Specific emotions

Predicting valence is not enough. In addition to this, people feel the need to know exactly what specific emotions we experience with certain situations or people.

Generally, we have the ability to predict our specific emotions most of the time. We are aware of which circumstances make us happy and which others generate feelings of distress, fear or anxiety.

However, this is not always easy, as we can often experience a mixture of emotions that do not always seem to be compatible. do not always seem to be compatible.. For example, if we find a good job offer, but it is abroad, we may feel happy and excited about starting a new life and having a good job, but on the other hand we may feel a little sad about having to leave our family and friends.

3. Intensity and duration of emotions

Finally, the third factor studied in Wilson and Gilbert's research was people's ability to predict the intensity of emotions, as well as their duration.

The results found that we can fairly accurately predict both affective valence and the specific emotions we will experience in the future. However, when it comes to the ability to predict the intensity and duration of emotions, the data reveal that we are not as skilled.

Research has shown that people tend to overestimate the tend to overestimate the duration of our future emotional reactions, a phenomenon known as bias.This phenomenon is known as durability bias. Similarly, when we try to predict how intense our emotions will be, we also fall into the error of overestimating this intensity. In this case the error is due to an impact bias.

What applications can this have?

Although affective forecasting has been studied mostly within the field of psychology, there are many other fields such as economics, law, health care or happiness research. or happiness research

An example of the application of affective prediction studies, in a field outside psychology, can be found in the interest shown by legal theorists in the tendency we show to underestimate our capacity to adapt to life-changing events, since this makes them question the assumptions behind damage awards. This is because it makes them question the assumptions that lie behind the compensation of damages and losses..

In the same way, this capacity is also currently being studied by health theorists or analysts, since most of the crucial decisions made about health depend on the patient's perception of his or her future quality of life.