In 2038 there will be more atheists than believers, according to this psychologist

Data from the last decades show a rapid decline of religion in many countries.

It is clear that during the last few decades in some countries a level of material well-being has been reached that had never been seen before in any historical period. This change has not occurred in a vacuum; it has gone hand in hand with rural-urban migration, environmental degradation, the accelerated development of new technologies... And, in addition, there has been a psychological change: more and more people are becoming atheists..

But to what extent will the tendency not to believe in the divine or in the afterlife continue to grow? Is there a "ceiling" beyond which atheism cannot continue to grow? According to psychologist Nigel Barber, if there is such a ceiling, it is still a long way off and, in fact, atheism will beat atheism to the top, atheism will beat religions to the punch by 2038..

Belief in religions is declining

There are two fundamental things that characterize atheism today: it is growing rapidly and it is very unevenly distributed by region and age. If in Spain 40 years ago only 8% of the population considered themselves to be atheiststoday this percentage has risen to 25%. Similarly, if among people over 65 years of age living in Spain atheists only account for 8.3%, among millenials, born in the last years of the 20th century, the percentage is approximately 50%.

Similarly, countries with a more developed welfare state, such as Sweden or Germany, have a higher representation of atheists, while religiosity is hegemonic in countries where there is a lot of poverty. It seems that the expansion of the welfare society is causing religiosity to recede.. For Barber, moreover, this is not a dynamic that will be reversed soon.

What is the reason for the expansion of atheism?

In his book Why Atheism Will Replace Religion?Nigel Barber explains that religion has for centuries been an elaborate cultural creation designed to placate the anguish of living in highly unstable environments. that comes from living in highly unstable and dangerous environments, where danger and scarcity of resources lurk on a daily basis. The idea of death and the feeling of helplessness could be better coped with by believing that life itself has to do with a creation full of ultraterrestrial transcendence. In these contexts, it was useful.

But just as certain animal species survive in stable island-like environments, there are ideas that are unrivaled as long as certain conditions are present over centuries and millennia; but when there is a strong change that affects the entire population and is unprecedented, the situation can change.the situation can change. The example given by the author is that of the dodo: when a new element enters the scene, extinction can occur within a few decades.

In this case, "the new" is the possibility of living relatively comfortable lives (at least materially) and access to an education in which logical reasoning and scientifically generated knowledge. This makes it possible to give meaning to life beyond the fear of extraterrestrial punishments and beyond dogmas.

The new religions

Another of the things that may be influencing the expansion of atheism is, according to Barber, the fact that new forms of non-theistic religiosity are appearing that escape the usual definition of "believer" and "non-believer". Soccer, the fan phenomenon, and some forms of political activismfor example, can lead us to feel part of both a cohesive collective and a system of dogmas and, of course, of a sense of transcendence, of something that will remain when we die.

Thus, many people who declare themselves atheists may be channeling quasi-religious forms of reasoning without realizing it. For example, by never questioning certain beliefs thanks to circular thinking, or by believing that there are ideas against which they can never be challenged. believe that there are ideas against which no "blasphemies" can be directed.. The difference between these new religions and the old ones is that they do not appeal to fear for non-compliance with a series of rules, and they can be abandoned at any time without being so afraid of the pressures of the environment.

What will happen in the coming decades?

In any case, it seems that if atheism goes hand in hand with the development and generalization of certain standards of well-being, environmental and economic crises can make a dent in it. What will happen when, due to the lack of energy sources, there is a collapse that paralyzes factories? And when climate change forces millions of people to move to other countries, and to look for drinking water elsewhere? It may be that in the next few years the lack of belief in religions will be at an all-time high, only to plummet immediately thereafter.and then plummet immediately thereafter as poverty and resource scarcity advance. In the end, no prediction is totally reliable, and religion can continue to perpetuate itself as it has done so far.