The gambler’s fallacy: what is it and how does it affect us?

This argumentative error affects us unconsciously, leading us to erroneous conclusions.

No matter how hard we try, people's reasoning does not always follow a logical basis. On a large number of occasions, we are so absolutely convinced of the validity and reasonableness of our reasoning that we end up making countless mistakes.

This is what happens with the gambler's fallacy. A type of erroneous thinking related to gambling and probability that can lead people to the point of losing large amounts of money in casinos and gambling. Below, we analyze this phenomenon.

What is the gambler's fallacy?

Before going into the description of the gambler's fallacy, we should know what exactly the term fallacy consists of. The fallacy concept belongs to the field of study of logic and the debate about them goes back to the time of Aristotle.

Although there is no absolute consensus about the concrete definition of this concept, we can describe a fallacy as an argument that may appear to be valid but in fact is not valid.. Sometimes these fallacies can be generated intentionally with the aim of deceiving or manipulating others, while in others they are committed unconsciously, due to an error in reasoning or ignorance.

At first glance it may seem that a fallacy is easy to detect, but the reality is that sometimes these deceptions or errors in reasoning are so subtle that it takes a lot of attention to identify them, which leads people to make wrong decisions.

In addition, the fact that an argument is considered a fallacy, also called a fallacious argument, does not necessarily imply that its hypotheses or assumptions are either false or true.. It is possible that a reasoning based on true hypotheses is a fallacious judgment, since what makes it false is the invalidity of the reasoning itself.

Once we understand the meaning of the concept of fallacy, it may be easier to understand what the gambler's fallacy is based on. This deception, also known as the gambler's fallacy or Monte Carlo fallacy, due to its relation with games of chance, consists of a logical fallacy by which people erroneously believe that past random events influence or affect future random events.

For example, if we throw a die and the number three comes up, it is quite possible that, because of the gambler's fallacy, we will come to the conclusion that it is quite improbable that the number three will come up in the future. the conclusion that it is quite improbable that in a second roll the same number will come up again.when, in reality, the probabilities are the same.

Because this type of deception of logic is associated with the world of betting and gambling, its main consequence is usually some kind of economic loss on the part of the person who is the victim of the fallacy.

The misconceptions embedded in this logical error.

As we have already mentioned, the main deception within the gambler's fallacy consists in believing that a past random event conditions the outcome of a future random event. However, there are some other misconceptions enclosed within it. These are the following.

1. A random event is more likely to occur because it has not occurred for a period of time.

For example, if we return to the case of the die, this fallacy can lead us to think that if the number 3 has never been rolled 10 times, it is more likely to be rolled the next time. But in reality, rolling this number or any other number has the same probability.

2. A random event is less likely to occur because it has occurred over a period of time.

In this case the opposite phenomenon occurs. If in a series of dice rolls, the number 3 has appeared numerous times, the gambler's fallacy leads us to think that in the next roll it is less likely to appear.

Another way to look at it is when purchasing a lottery ticket. Usually, people are reluctant to buy tickets with repeated numbers. For example, anyone will choose 74398 before 01011. The reason is that the false logic makes us think that it is very unlikely that so many repeated or consecutive numbers will come out..

3. A random event is less likely to occur if it occurred recently.

For this fallacy we can use the example of lotteries. If in the previous lottery drawing the winning number was 18245, it is quite possible that lottery players will fall for the deception that it will not come up again in the next draw. However, the reality is that, strangely enough, the chances are the same.

4. A random event is more likely to occur if it did not occur recently.

Finally, this false belief is the opposite equivalent of the previous one. On this occasion, the gambler's fallacy leads us to think, for example, that if in the game of roulette during the last spin the ball fell on red, it is more likely to fall on black now.

What are the consequences of this fallacy?

Despite the fact that, once explained, any person may think that he would not fall for this type of deception. It is extraordinary to observe how this type of fallacy affects and conditions us much more affects and conditions us much more than we think..

These erroneous thoughts appear unconsciously. One of the characteristics of this gambler's fallacy is that people think we are better at calculating probabilities than we really are.

The absolute conviction of the above misconceptions, can lead people to lose large sums of money or even property.. Let us not forget that gambling can be addictive and that there are more and more betting and gambling games in which people can participate without leaving their living room.

If we add to the addiction that these games generate, the fact that no person is free from the influence of the gambler's fallacy, we obtain as a result a large number of people losing large sums of money without being aware of the thinking errors that are leading them to do so.