Horoscopes are a scam: we explain why

Several psychological tricks and biases in our perception can have us deceived.

Horoscopes and astrology are very commonly used to predict the future.. There are many newspapers and web pages that obtain an important number of readers because they include daily predictions according to the zodiac sign, not always following the "official" mathematical and astrological methods.

However, not only are the interpretations of newspapers and websites highly likely to be false, but the horoscope itself is a scam; we explain why using very basic psychological concepts.

What is the horoscope?

"Horoscope" is a term of Greek origin; "horoskopos" comes from the words "hõra" (which translates as "time") and "skopeo" ("examine", "observe").

The word refers to the pseudoscientific system used to predict a person's future based on the positions of the stars at birth or at another special time. at birth or at another special time. Those who interpret these signs are called astrologers.

In Western astrology, predictions are based on the position of the sun, while the Chinese horoscope also takes into account the position of the moon since it is based on a lunisolar calendar and not a solar calendar.

What are the signs of the zodiac?

The astrological chart is divided into 12 sectors that represent different positions of the Ecliptic, i.e. the apparent path of the zodiac.that is, the apparent path of the sun around the earth when it is observed from the earth. Each of these segments is identified with a zodiac sign.

The zodiac signs represent the 12 constellations of the Ecliptic. Different characteristics are attributed to each of them, which are supposed to influence the psychology of people born at the time when the Sun crossed a certain sector of the Ecliptic.

Each sign is attributed a "positive" or "negative" pole (extroverted and active versus introverted and passive) and an element (water, air, earth or fire). Other important elements besides the zodiac signs are the planets, which are also said to influence the personality, and the so-called "houses", which determine the relative influence of each planet on the personality. determine the relative influence of each planet on a person's psychology..

How is it interpreted?

The birth chart is calculated using the exact date of the person's birth, including hour and minutes, and the latitude and longitude of the place where it occurred.

The astrological chart calculations are intended to locate the "Right Ascension of the Midheaven", which supposedly determines which planets influenced our personality at the time we were born.

Within astrology, interpretations made using only the position of the planets are considered to have zero validity: according to horoscope experts it is necessary to make a series of mathematical calculations in a certain order. However, most of the time they are ignored.However, most of the time these prescriptions are ignored, especially in newspapers and on websites..

Scientific basis

Numerous studies have been carried out with scientific methodology to study the hypotheses proposed by astrology and horoscopes, including longitudinal studies with reliable control techniques.

None of these studies have found that the likelihood of the stars influencing our psychology is likely to be significantly different from that of the astrologers. is superior to that of having a personality trait determined by chance. Therefore, we can say that the scientific basis of horoscopes is null, since there is enough evidence to affirm that the position of the stars at the moment of birth does not influence personality.

Several mechanisms have been proposed from astrology by which the stars could influence our behavior, such as electromagnetism and gravity, but they are scarcely plausible from a physical point of view.

For these reasons horoscopes and astrology are classified under the term "Esotericism", referring to practices not based on science but on apparently arbitrary methods whose learning requires training by supposed experts.

Psychological explanations

While science in general has shown that horoscopes are a scam or at least that their predictions are not based on reality, psychology is needed to explain why so many people believe it works..

The Forer Effect

Scientific studies have shown that people tend to identify with very vague personality descriptions if we are told that they describe us specifically. This is known as the "Forer effect" or "Barnum effect".

Bertram R. Forer was a psychologist who had his students fill out a personality test.. He then gave them a supposed description of each other's personality, asking them to rate from 0 to 5 how much they identified with him; the average result was 4.2.

In reality, Forer had given them all the same description based on horoscopes. The text included extremely vague statements such as "Although you have flaws you are usually able to compensate for them" or "Sometimes you are outgoing, affable and sociable but other times you are introverted, cautious and reserved".

InterestinglyIn other similar studies, it has been shown that people tend to identify more with descriptions of this type, including those of some personality tests.including those of some personality tests, than with the results of psychological tests backed by science.

This is because we more readily believe what people we consider experts say and because ambiguous phrases allow us to interpret descriptions subjectively, projecting personal meaning onto their statements. It is probably also influenced by the fact that horoscopes generally tell us positive things, whereas this is not always the case with serious personality tests.

Confirmation bias

We call "confirmation bias" or "confirmatory bias" the tendency we have as people to prefer information that confirms our beliefs over information that supports alternative hypotheses, which we ignore much more easily.

In horoscopes and other aspects of esotericism the confirmation bias manifests itself very frequently.. Normally when we read a horoscope or when a "professional" reads the Tarot cards, we receive a large number of affirmations, among which we will pay more attention to those that seem to fit our self-image. We will also remember to a greater extent the phrases that "get it right" in describing us.

Confirmatory bias is constantly present in our lives. Whenever we seek, receive, remember or interpret information we are involuntarily favoring the views we already had. The only way to avoid this error of reasoning to any degree is to be actively aware of when we are making it.

If you believe in horoscopes, probably when you read this you will prefer to think that it is the scientists who have systematically studied the hypotheses of astrology who are wrong, not you; this is a good example of confirmation bias.

Horoscope is just another scam

There are many pseudosciences, i.e., disciplines that present themselves as scientifically plausible but in reality do not follow the scientific method and have no claim to do so. In general, these esoteric practices are based on false premises and/or use arbitrary methods.

It is important to be clear that, while the sciences are considered as such because their perspectives are derived from prior scientific knowledge, pseudosciences make similar claims but do not have a solid body of research to back them up, so that on many occasions they attempt to take advantage of the status conferred by the label "scientific" without having been able to test their hypotheses.

Confirmation bias and the Forer effect, which have been amply demonstrated by science, may be sufficient to affirm that the horoscope has been sufficient to affirm that the horoscope is a scam, if we add them to the studies that have been carried out in the past.The confirmation bias and the Forer effect, which have been amply demonstrated by science, may be enough to affirm that the horoscope is a scam, if we add them to the studies that have refuted the hypothesis that the position of the stars at the time of birth influences personality.